Impact of the climatic
change on animal diseases spread.
Problem raised by the Subdirectorate General for Health in Primary Production Ministry of the
Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs
Coordinators:
Dr. José Manuel
Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez (Facultad de Veterinaria, UCM)
Dr. Beatriz Martinez Lopez (Facultad de
Veterinaria, UCM)
Dr. Benjamin Ivorra (Facultad de
Matemáticas, UCM)
Problem presentation:
Climate change is affecting the ecosystem and many of the factors
associated with human and animal diseases. In particular, it has been
demonstrated important changes in the insect-borne diseases. The clearest
example of this has been observed in Europe in relation to bluetongue virus, a
disease of ruminants transmitted by insects, which traditionally occurred only
below parrallel 40 and now has expanded its geographical distribution affecting
the countries of northern Europe. The increase of temperature has been shown to
affect the insect colonization, presence and survival and to its susceptibility
of the bluetongue virus. Moreover, it is also important to highlight the role
of the wind in the bluetongue virus spread, because as well as the vast
majority of insect-borne diseases, bluetongue can be spread from endemic areas
to free areas through the movement of insects by the wind. Furthermore the
presence of more insects due to the increase of temperature amplify the
probability that these insects are vehiculated by the wind.
This work aims to study the potential impact that potential changes in
temperature due to climate change could have on the spread of these
insect-borne diseases, especially in the Spanish case. To reach this objective
a numerical and stochastic model will be developed, taking into account the
data of wind speed and temperature distribution in the area of interest, and
with coefficients that will be determined from a real database provided by the
Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs. The model will be
validated by considering the particular case of bluetongue in Spain.
Scheme of the work to be
done:
- Reading and analysis of several articles related to climate change and
its effects on insect-borne diseases such as bluetongue.
- Developing a hybrid model with differential equations and stochastic.
- Implementation and numerical simulation of the model developed.
- Validation of the model considering actual data for the case of
Bluetongue in Spain.