Impact of the climatic change on animal diseases spread.
Problem raised by the Subdirectorate General for Health in Primary Production Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs
Dr. José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez (Facultad de Veterinaria, UCM)
Dr. Beatriz Martinez Lopez (Facultad de Veterinaria, UCM)
Dr. Benjamin Ivorra (Facultad de Matemáticas, UCM)
Climate change is affecting the ecosystem and many of the factors associated with human and animal diseases. In particular, it has been demonstrated important changes in the insect-borne diseases. The clearest example of this has been observed in Europe in relation to bluetongue virus, a disease of ruminants transmitted by insects, which traditionally occurred only below parrallel 40 and now has expanded its geographical distribution affecting the countries of northern Europe. The increase of temperature has been shown to affect the insect colonization, presence and survival and to its susceptibility of the bluetongue virus. Moreover, it is also important to highlight the role of the wind in the bluetongue virus spread, because as well as the vast majority of insect-borne diseases, bluetongue can be spread from endemic areas to free areas through the movement of insects by the wind. Furthermore the presence of more insects due to the increase of temperature amplify the probability that these insects are vehiculated by the wind.
This work aims to study the potential impact that potential changes in temperature due to climate change could have on the spread of these insect-borne diseases, especially in the Spanish case. To reach this objective a numerical and stochastic model will be developed, taking into account the data of wind speed and temperature distribution in the area of interest, and with coefficients that will be determined from a real database provided by the Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs. The model will be validated by considering the particular case of bluetongue in Spain.
Scheme of the work to be done:
- Reading and analysis of several articles related to climate change and its effects on insect-borne diseases such as bluetongue.
- Developing a hybrid model with differential equations and stochastic.
- Implementation and numerical simulation of the model developed.
- Validation of the model considering actual data for the case of Bluetongue in Spain.